Washington’s Notorious Rush-Hour Traffic Has Dipped Three Percent In Recent Months, To The Relief Of Commuters, But Signals Are Mixed, Says AAA
That dreaded day of reckoning is drawing nigh for area motorists and commuters alike. It is “Terrible Traffic Tuesday.” That’s the day after Labor Day in the Washington metro area when it’s back to work, back to school, and back to the second-worst gridlock in the entire nation, says AAA Mid-Atlantic.
“With more than three million Washington area workers returning to work, 800,000 kids returning to area schools, and 860,000 Washingtonians who spent the weekend kissing summer goodbye 50 miles or more from home, chances are we will feel the full brunt of the second-worst gridlock in the nation for the first time in three months,” comments John B. Townsend II, AAA Mid-Atlantic’s Manager of Public and Government Affairs.
“On top of that, Congress and the lobbyist are also back in town. Will rush hour traffic, which has dipped 3.1 percent in recent months on area roads continue to show signs of decline or will we see a surge in gridlock as is the norm in September? Based on what we are seeing on area roads of late, there are indications we may see the latter.”
It’s hard to tell, admits AAA Mid-Atlantic, based on the findings of three major studies released this year on measuring traffic congestion on roads in the metro area.
In terms of national rankings on the gridlock misery index, the Washington metro area has sole ownership of the number-two spot, according to the 2009 Urban Mobility Report from the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI). Only traffic in Los Angeles is worst. The average commuter in DC is spending 3 hours longer stuck in congestion in 2007 than in 2006, the TTI found. On average, rush hour travelers across the country “spent one hour less stuck in traffic in 2007 than they did the year before and wasted one gallon less gasoline than the year before.”
However, another study shows gridlock actually dropped 3.1 percent on the most congested freeway chokepoints in the Washington metro region in 2008. That’s according to the findings of the aerial traffic congestion survey conducted by the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB). It was the first time TPB had seen a decrease in gridlock on area roads since it began monitoring traffic congestion. It cited “higher gasoline prices and the onset of the economic downturn” as major factors.
In contrast, a recent study by INRIX shows that traffic gridlock reached its nadir or lowest point in the second quarter of 2009 and is now starting to increase. During the second quarter travel times during peak commute periods actually increased 1.8 percent in the metro region, INRIX found, citing the fact that the region was “seemingly unaffected by the nation’s economic turmoil of the past year.” The study ranks traffic congestion in the Metro region the fourth worst in the nation, up one slot from last year’s rankings.
“The signals are mixed,” said Townsend. “How do we reconcile the various studies on gridlock in our area? Keep in mind, these are calipers measuring the extent and magnitude of gridlock on area roads during different time frames over the past three years.”
Interestingly, motorists across the nation drove 9.9 billion fewer vehicle miles from January to May 2009, compared to the same period a year earlier. That’s according to the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). A month later in June, which marks the traditional start of the summer driving and vacation seasons, motorists across the country drove about 5 billion more miles, compared to the same month in 2008. That’s a 2% increase according to government data.
That month motorists in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia drove 273 million more miles than they did the previous June, according to data from the FHWA. Virginia motorists drove 2.3 percent more in June 2009 than they did in June 2008.
All told, they increased their vehicles miles of travel (VMT) by 156 million miles. Driving increased 2.0 percent on Maryland roads. It was up by 96 million miles compared to June a year ago. Motorists in the nation’s capital drove 21 million miles more this past June than they did in June 2008. That’s a 6.6 percent increase in traffic volume in Washington, D.C. proper.
Is it a harbinger of things to come the day after Labor Day on roads and highways in the Washington metro region or a mere uptick in seasonal driving during the summer vacation season?
“Tuesday will tell,” says the AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesman. “It is the tale of the tape for the gridlock misery index.” Last year’s record-breaking gasoline prices and subsequent recession changed commuting and driving habits. Prior to this, 1.7 million area motorists drove to work alone each workday. “That number is decreasing. But most of us won’t be able to tell the difference,” said Anderson.
Most residents swear up and down they’ve noticed a discernable drop in the number of cars on area roads throughout the summer months. In the aftermath of the deadliest crash in Metro history on June 22, public transportation users have also had more elbow room on Metrorail and Metrobus.
For example, Metro reportedly experienced a 2.3 percent drop in ridership on the Metrorail system in July 2009, compared to the same month a year earlier. That translates into 475,785 fewer trips. Ridership also dipped on Metrobus lines, falling 4.1 percent in July, according to published reports.
“I suppose it’s not shocking news that in a recession, with national unemployment near 10%, mass transit and toll authorities are seeing fewer users. After all, these assets (trains and toll roads) get people to and from work,” said Townsend. “But anyone who’s driven more than a mile or taken a train in the last month already knew that there’s fewer cars and commuters out there. The big question is whether there will be a return to normalcy – meaning the abnormal -on Terrible Traffic Tuesday?”
Here’s a snapshot of what area motorists and commuters can expect on Terrible Traffic Tuesday:
- All told, 3.02 million Washington area workers will head back to the workplace.
- The gridlock clock will start again with the average motorist losing 62 hours a year stuck in area traffic. Time is money and we are squandering plenty of both on area roads. Gridlock in the metro area is costing the average rush hour driver $1,207 a year, according to the TTI.
- An estimated 800,000 students will return to public schools around the Washington region, as students in Virginia join their counterparts in the District and Maryland in doing homework.
- Area roads will be clogged with yellow school buses. For example, in Montgomery County alone some 96,000 students ride the bus each school day. In neighboring Prince George’s County 93,926 students ride 1,285 school buses each day.
- Now that their kids are in school civilian employees in the federal work force – some 230,000 persons – will return to their work stations in various federal agencies throughout the Greater Washington area.
- The commute pattern will continue to change on area roads throughout the metro area. o Here’s why. “More than 47.9 percent of the region’s jobs are located in the inner suburbs of Fairfax, Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties and the cities within them.” That’s according to research by the Transportation Planning Board (TPB).
- 250,000 motorists will drive to work each work day on the iconic Capitol Beltway. That’s based on the estimated traffic count at the Wilson and American Legion Bridges.
- The average commute is still from hell. Across the country the national average commute time is 25 minutes each day, according to the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the United States Census Bureau.
- That’s compared to an average daily commute of 31.1 minutes for Maryland motorists. It’s 30.1 minutes a day for District residents. It’s 26.8 minutes each workday for the average Virginian.
AAA Mid-Atlantic has nearly four million members in the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. It provides a wide range of personal insurance, travel, financial and automotive services through its 50-plus retail branches, regional operations centers, and the Internet. For more information, please visit our web site at www.AAA.com.